What Murphy is really saying
If you are expecting a flood of Chinese cars on U.S. roads anytime soon, Murphy says do not hold your breath. Rolling out his latest view of the U.S. auto landscape on Tuesday, he told CNBC the near term simply does not support a Chinese push into the market. He also sees little political appetite in Washington to allow it, given the potential hit to American automakers and factory jobs. He said "an entree of the Chinese with unfettered access in the U.S. market would be incredibly disruptive, even if they produced here in the U.S."
Murphy's latest Automotive Product Pipeline suggests the churn could be significant. He thinks 5 to 10 brands now sold in the U.S. could go away over the next ten years, out of 38 currently on sale. No nameplate is completely insulated, he said, but his list of most at risk includes Polestar, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, Jaguar and Fiat.