Murphy Automotive Partners’ inaugural MAPP forecast warns the 2026 model year saw one of the lightest new-vehicle launch schedules in years, with the U.S. industry entering a three-year valley in product introductions through 2028. Average product age is projected to hit a record 4.8 years by 2028 before a wave of delayed redesigns arrives in 2029. The report attributes the drought to deferred EV programs, regulatory uncertainty, and global competition, particularly from Chinese automakers.

Credit: Toyota

Toyota appears to be the brand with the least to fear, leading roughly a dozen brands MAPP deems to be in good shape, followed by about 18 brands in the middle, according to the report’s Brand Survival Index that scores the viability of each, noting those that lean on aging lineups or deferred EV programs will lose market share.

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