Automakers are expected to redesign 9% of their lineups on average across the 2026 through 2028 model years, well below the 20-year average of 14%, according to veteran auto analyst John Murphy, as reported by the Journal. The figure is volume-weighted, and it would be lower still without General Motors’ redesign of its best-selling pickups.
Murphy spent more than two decades writing Bank of America’s annual Car Wars study before launching Murphy Automotive Partners in June. His first full product-pipeline report, released September 15, calls MY2026 to MY2028 the worst three-year new-product drought on record, with several automakers facing effectively blank years. The average age of the products sitting in U.S. showrooms is projected to peak at a record of about 4.8 years in MY2028 before redesigns rebound starting in MY2029.
STELLANTIS
The drought also got deeper in a single year. Murphy’s last Car Wars at Bank of America, in June 2025, projected a replacement rate of about 11% for 2026 and 2027 and counted 159 launches over four years, against a traditional total above 200. The new figure is 9%.